top headlines from today:
World & Market
- Nasdaq closes higher as Tesla rally helps start week on an upbeat note
- DOW JONES UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES DOWN 75.52 POINTS, OR 0.17%, AT 43,369.47
- NASDAQ UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES UP 102.19 POINTS, OR 0.55%, AT 18,782.31
- S&P 500 UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES UP 20.42 POINTS, OR 0.35%, AT 5,891.04
- Mortgage Rates Didn’t Move Much Over The Weekend 30 Yr. Fixed: 7.08% (+0.03% ▲) | 15 Yr. Fixed: 6.45% (+0.02% ▲)
- MORGAN STANLEY RAISES ITS BASE CASE 2025 YEAR-END S&P 500 TARGET TO 6500
- KEN GRIFFIN SAYS HE’S INVESTED IN NUCLEAR AND IT’S THE FUTURE
- Hedge-fund titan Ken Griffin said he’s anxious about Donald Trump’s potential tariff policies, but that the US economy is going back to “the business of business” now that the president-elect has won the US election. He spoke at the Oxford Union today:
- Goldman: “Our economists see a 40% chance of a 10% across-the-board tariffs on all $3.1tn of US imports.”
2024 Politics
- White House preparing $98.6 billion disaster aid package for Congress — Punchbowl
- TRUMP CONFIRMS PLAN TO DECLARE NATIONAL EMERGENCY, USE MILITARY FOR MASS DEPORTATIONS (ABC News)
- MSNBC hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski traveled to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump in bid for “new approach” to coverage
- Pennsylvania’s Democratic-controlled Supreme Court sides with McCormick campaign, ordering counties to immediately stop counting invalid ballots.
- Senator Elizabeth Warren has the Numbers to confirm 40 federal Judges to block Trump’s deportation of immigrants.
Conflict
- BIDEN PERMITS UKRAINE TO STRIKE DEEP INSIDE RUSSIA WITH AMERICAN MISSILE SYSTEMS
- France and Britain authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with their missiles — Le Figaro
- PUTIN ALLY SAYS RUSSIA MAY HAVE TO USE NEW WEAPONS SYSTEMS IN UKRAINE IF KYIV STRIKES RUSSIA WITH LONG-RANGE U.S. MISSILES
- *LEBANON, HEZBOLLAH AGREE TO US CEASREFIRE PROPOSAL: REUTERS
- PUTIN ALLY SAYS SUCH A MOVE COULD DESTROY U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS ONCE AND FOR ALL
- NETANYAHU: I AM IN DISCUSSION WITH PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP AND WE AGREE WITH THE AMERICANS ON HOW TO DEAL WITH THE IRANIAN THREAT – AL JAZEERAS ON X.
key headlines we care about:
- Spirit Airlines $SAVE has now officially filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy – WSJ (It’s shocking that an “airline” that charged you for a folding chair and a bible to fly, has failed…)
- FED’S COLLINS: I AM NOT SEEING EVIDENCE OF NEW INFLATION PRESSURES. (Well, from where your head is, it’s hard to see anything..)
- Donald Trump to meet privately with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and expected to discuss appointments – WSJ — bitcoin mag (This all feels like a giant fever dream…)
- The most debt is held by Americans aged 40-49 of ~$5 trillion. (In case you needed another reason to STAY married…)
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MEAL MEDS MONDAY
Study: “Cucumbers lowers stress”
Me, immediately:
The Great Post-Election Rally Hits a Wall as Powell Weighs In – Bloomberg
As a reminder, excess government spending is what causes inflation
Government spending per capita. $6,771 to $26,679 is a pretty big jump.
When you forget to bring a towel to the shower with you…
One-in-five Americans reports getting their news from influencers. A new study finds that news influencers are more likely to identify with the political right.
Global Politics
President-elect Donald Trump has a couple of math problems to solve to get his full agenda through Congress, even with Republican control
Boss: “If you’re quitting, then I’ll need a minimum of 2 weeks’ notice.
Me:
The S&P 500 has hit 12 100-point milestones in 2024, crossing above 6,000 last week for the first time.
FYI
We’ve seen some wild post-election moves so far…
“Get excited kids; It’s time for Cotton Chicken Candy Nuggets!”
Click HERE for a market recap
on this day in history:
Today in History
1978 Mass suicides in Jonestown
Over 900 people committed suicide at the behest of Jim Jones the founder and head of a group called Peoples Temple. Formed in Indianapolis, Indiana, in the mid-1050s, members of the group moved to Guyana in 1974 and set up a settlement outside Georgetown and called in Jonestown.
1963 Push button phones are used for the first time
Bell systems started replacing rotary dial phones by push button phone in the United States. Push button phones use keys or buttons to dial a number.
1916 End of the Somme Offensive
The battle was bought between German forces on one side and British and French forces on the other during the First World War. Thought to be one of the bloodiest battles of the 20th century – the conflict started on July 1, 1916, and was fought on the banks of the river Somme in France.
1903 Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty signed between Panama and the US
The treaty created the Panama Canal Zone and set up the terms for the construction of the Panama Canal. Until 1979, the Panama Canal Zone was a territory of the United States. The French began construction on the Panama Canal in 1881 but had to stop due to engineering problems. The US took over the construction in 1904 and finished building the canal in 1914.
1883 Canadian and American railroads adopt time zones
Prior to this, most cities had their own local time, making it difficult for railways to be on time and confusing passengers. To solve this problem, private railways decided to divide the continent into 4 distinct time zones – the lines of which are very close to the time zone lines today.
birthdays & deaths:
Births On This Day, November 18th
1974 Chloë Sevigny
American actress, fashion designer
1953 Alan Moore
English author, illustrator
1939 Margaret Atwood
Canadian poet, author, critic
1933 Bruce Conner
American painter, photographer, director
1923 Ted Stevens
American politician
Deaths On This Day, November 18th
1987 Jacques Anquetil
French cyclist
1978 Jim Jones
American cult leader, founded the Peoples Temple
1962 Niels Bohr
Danish physicist, Nobel Prize laureate
1922 Marcel Proust
French writer
1886 Chester A. Arthur
American politician, 21st President of the United States
company news/earnings:
Analyst Actions
Earnings
BTBT Bit Digital reported earnings Q3 FY2024 results ended September 30th 2024 – Revenue: $22.7M, +96% YoY – Bitcoin Mining Revenue: $10.1M, -11% YoY – Net loss per share: $0.26 vs $0.08 in Q3 2023 – HPC Revenue: $12.2M – Cash & equivalents: $105.6M – Total liquidity: $223.6M
EH EHang Holdings reported earnings Q3 FY2024 results ended September 30th 2024 – Revenue: RMB128.1M ($18.3M), +347.8% YoY – Net loss: RMB48.1M ($6.9M), improved 28.3% YoY – Deliveries: 63 units of EH216 series, record high (vs 13 units in Q3 2023) – Cash position: RMB1,077.6M ($153.6M) as of September 30, 2024
FYI
Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba Group is aiming to raise $5 billion in multi-tranche dollar and offshore Chinese yuan bonds, according to sources
Samsung shares climb more than 7% after surprise $7 billion buyback plan
ASSOCIATED PRESS TO CUT 8% OF STAFF THROUGH BUYOUTS, LAYOFFS TO ‘ACCELERATE’ DIGITAL NEWS STRATEGY – Variety
Treasury yields are flat as traders await fresh U.S. data
Investor money has been flowing out of bond funds since the election: Barclays
$3 trillion Goldman Sachs plans to convert its Digital Asset Platform into a blockchain venture for faster trading and settlements.
MicroStrategy buys another 51,780 Bitcoin ($4.6 billion).
Donald Trump chose Brendan Carr to be chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC)
U.S. SEC SAYS IT CHARGES BIT MINING WITH FCPA VIOLATIONS IN CONNECTION WITH BRIBERY SCHEME TO INFLUENCE MEMBERS OF JAPANESE PARLIAMENT
Cayman Finance; Gold and Bitcoin are shaping investment strategies in 2024, with each asset offering distinct advantages.
NY FED: REJECTION RATES FOR MORTGAGE REFINANCE, AUTO LOANS HIGHEST IN SURVEY HISTORY
NY FED: HOUSEHOLDS IN 2024 MORE UPBEAT ON SENSE OF FINANCIAL FRAGILITY.
NY FED: 2024 CREDIT REJECTION RATE RISES TO 21% VS 2023’S 20.1% AND 2019’S 17.6%.
NY FED: CREDIT APPLICATION RATES LARGELY STEADY OVER 2024.
NY FED: SHARE OF AMERICANS ARE TOO DISCOURAGED TO APPLY FOR CREDIT ROSE IN 2024.
NY FED: REJECTION RATES FOR MORTGAGE REFINANCE AND AUTO LOANS HIGHEST IN SURVEY HISTORY.
NY FED: HOUSEHOLDS EXPECT TO APPLY LESS FOR CREDIT OVER NEXT YEAR.
NY FED: AVERAGE CREDIT REJECTION RATES IN 2024 WELL ABOVE 2019 LEVELS.
Apollo Opens Seoul Office and Names Jay Hyun Lee Head of Korea as Part of Continued APAC Expansion
Bain Capital Raises $5.7 Billion for Global Special Situations – BBG
Billionaire Paul Tudor’s hedge fund holds $230 million worth of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF.
Goldman: “Our economists see a 40% chance of a 10% across-the-board tariffs on all $3.1tn of US imports.”
Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs, which listed the metal among top commodity trades for 2025
MORGAN STANLEY RAISES ITS BASE CASE 2025 YEAR-END S&P 500 TARGET TO 6500
FED’S COLLINS: I AM NOT SEEING EVIDENCE OF NEW INFLATION PRESSURES.
BOJ CHIEF SEES HIGHER CHANCE OF WAGE-DRIVEN INFLATION IN JAPAN – RTRS
Pennsylvania’s Democratic-controlled Supreme Court sides with McCormick campaign, ordering counties to immediately stop counting invalid ballots.
U.S NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX (NOV) ACTUAL: 46 VS 43 PREVIOUS; EST 42
The median age of first-time buyers has risen from 35 in 2023 to 38 now, per the National Association of Realtors.
CANADA HOUSING STARTS (OCT) ACTUAL: 240.8K VS 223.8K PREVIOUS; EST 239.0K
NIPPON STEEL MAKES ANTI-IMPORT VOW TO WIN OVER US STEEL WORKERS- BBG
DONALD TRUMP’S SOCIAL MEDIA COMPANY IS IN ADVANCED TALKS TO BUY BAKKT, A CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING VENUE OWNED BY INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE- FT $BKKT $DJT
Dollar strengthens against yen on Bank of Japan’s hike uncertainty
Gold surges on softer dollar, Russia-Ukraine tensions
NYMEX WTI CRUDE DECEMBER FUTURES SETTLE AT $69.16 A BARREL, UP $2.14, 3.19%.
BRENT CRUDE FUTURES SETTLE AT $73.30/BBL, UP $2.26, 3.18%
NYMEX GASOLINE DECEMBER FUTURES SETTLE AT $2.0183 A GALLON.
NYMEX DIESEL DECEMBER FUTURES SETTLE AT $2.2514 A GALLON.
NYMEX NATURAL GAS DECEMBER FUTURES SETTLE AT $2.9730/MMBTU.
CHINA OCTOBER LNG IMPORTS REACH 6.55 MILLION TONS, UP 28% YEAR ON YEAR
CHINA’S GASOLINE EXPORTS DECLINE BY 12.8% YEAR ON YEAR TO 670,000 TONS IN OCTOBER
CHINA OCTOBER DIESEL EXPORTS DOWN BY 57.2% YEAR ON YEAR TO 480,000 TONS
Thai GDP grows 3.0% in Q3 — Tourism recovery and government spending provide tailwinds
US Total Net TIC Flows Sep: $398.4B (prev $79.2B) – Net Long-Term TIC Flows: $216.1B (prev $111.4B)
Nasdaq closes higher as Tesla rally helps start week on an upbeat note
DOW JONES UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES DOWN 75.52 POINTS, OR 0.17%, AT 43,369.47
NASDAQ UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES UP 102.19 POINTS, OR 0.55%, AT 18,782.31
S&P 500 UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES UP 20.42 POINTS, OR 0.35%, AT 5,891.04
European markets close slightly lower as investors await inflation data
Asia markets mixed as investors await China LPR, Japan inflation data this week